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Suvorovo vs Ustrem Donchevo — Third League - Northeast 2018

Suvorovo
Suvorovo
FT
5 – 1
Ustrem Donchevo
Ustrem Donchevo
4/14/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 23Gradski stadion (Suvorovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Suvorovo80%
×Draw12%
Ustrem Donchevo8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Suvorovo
3.21
Ustrem Donchevo
0.95

Suvorovo creates 238% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 105 away

creates per match

Suvorovo
3.80
Ustrem Donchevo
1.24

allows per match

Suvorovo
0.65
Ustrem Donchevo
2.62

finishing

Suvorovo+0.00on par
Ustrem Donchevo+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Suvorovo ↓

Ustrem Donchevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Suvorovo or draw
92%
Suvorovo or Ustrem Donchevo
88%
Draw or Ustrem Donchevo
20%

Winning margin

Suvorovo wins by 2+
62%
Ustrem Donchevo wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Suvorovo 1+ goals
96%
Suvorovo 2+ goals
82%
Suvorovo 3+ goals
60%
Ustrem Donchevo 1+ goals
61%
Ustrem Donchevo 2+ goals
25%
Ustrem Donchevo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Suvorovo (draw refunded)
91%
Ustrem Donchevo (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Suvorovo at home — creates 3.80, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Ustrem Donchevo away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.62 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Suvorovo attack 3.80 + Ustrem Donchevo defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 3.21

Ustrem Donchevo attack 1.24 + Suvorovo defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Suvorovo scores more
80%
level
12%
Ustrem Donchevo scores more
8%

Suvorovo at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Suvorovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suvorovo 5 – 1 Ustrem Donchevo

Suvorovo beat Ustrem Donchevo 5-1 in Third League - Northeast on April 14, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion (Suvorovo).