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Sutton Utd vs Swindon Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
CANC
11:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
7/31/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sutton Utd29%
×Draw21%
Swindon Town50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.62
Swindon Town
2.17

Swindon Town creates 34% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.33
Swindon Town
3.00

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.33
Swindon Town
1.91

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
50%
Sutton Utd or Swindon Town
79%
Draw or Swindon Town
71%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
14%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
80%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
48%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
22%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
89%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
64%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
37%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.33 + Swindon Town defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.62

Swindon Town attack 3.00 + Sutton Utd defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
29%
level
21%
Swindon Town scores more
50%

Swindon Town at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sutton Utd face Swindon Town (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Sutton Utd hosting Swindon Town. Match starts July 31, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sutton Utd host Swindon Town at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.