Sutton Utd 1–3 Stockport County: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Stockport County

4/6/2024

League Two · Round 43VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sutton Utd34%

×Draw26%

Stockport County40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchStockport County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.41

Sutton Utd

1.27

Stockport County

1.41

Stockport County creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 47 away

1.41

creates per match

1.72

1.09

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Stockport County

1.72

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Stockport County

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Stockport County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Stockport County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

60%

Sutton Utd or Stockport County

74%

Draw or Stockport County

66%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

15%

Stockport County wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

72%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

36%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

14%

Stockport County 1+ goals

76%

Stockport County 2+ goals

41%

Stockport County 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

46%

Stockport County (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Stockport County away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.13 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Stockport County defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Stockport County attack 1.72 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

34%

level

26%

Stockport County scores more

40%

Stockport County at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stockport County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff