Sutton Utd 1–0 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

W. Randall-Hurren 38'

11/19/2022

League Two · Round 19VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sutton Utd45%

×Draw27%

Rochdale28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.02

Sutton Utd

1.39

Rochdale

1.02

Sutton Utd creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 56 away

1.41

creates per match

0.95

1.09

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

72%

Sutton Utd or Rochdale

73%

Draw or Rochdale

55%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

22%

Rochdale wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

75%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

40%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

16%

Rochdale 1+ goals

64%

Rochdale 2+ goals

27%

Rochdale 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

62%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.39

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

45%

level

27%

Rochdale scores more

28%

Sutton Utd at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

J. Kizzi

Sutton Utd · D

7.7

Match Events

38'

W. Randall-Hurren

56'

D. Rodney← J. Ball

78'

T. Fadahunsi← D. Wilson

87'

T. Sinclair← T. Diagouraga

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonRochdale

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots11

2Corners9

12Fouls6

Shots

11Total Shots11

4On Target3

3Off Target3

4Blocked5

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

291Total Passes428

168Accurate Passes283

58%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls6

3Offsides4