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Sutton Utd vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Northampton
Northampton
D. Wilson 45+3'
M. Pinnock 50'
L. Appéré 32'
4/18/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 43VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd40%
×Draw27%
Northampton33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.32
Northampton
1.17

Sutton Utd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 88 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
67%
Sutton Utd or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
60%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
18%
Northampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
73%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
38%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
15%
Northampton 1+ goals
69%
Northampton 2+ goals
33%
Northampton 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
55%
Northampton (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Northampton attack 1.24 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
40%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
33%

Sutton Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
Omar BugielSutton UtdSutton Utd · F
7.5

Match Events

25'
M. Dyche← J. Sowerby
26'
Will Randall
32'
L. Appéré↳ M. Dyche
45+3'
D. Wilson
50'
Coby Rowe
50'
M. Pinnock
75'
S. McWilliams← D. Norman
82'
D. Hylton← L. Appéré
82'
T. Yengi← K. Bowie
84'
Omar Bugiel
87'
Marc Leonard
90+3'
Danny Hylton
90'
E. Boldewijn← B. Goodliffe

Possession

62%Sutton

Shots

12Sutton

Pass accuracy

61%Sutton

Statistics

SuttonNorthampton
Overview
62%Possession38%
12Total Shots8
5Corners3
12Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots8
2On Target4
7Off Target4
3Blocked0
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
390Total Passes237
264Accurate Passes105
68%Pass Accuracy44%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
3Offsides2

League Two: Sutton Utd 1–2 Northampton

Northampton beat Sutton Utd 2-1 in League Two on April 18, 2023.

Goals: L. Appéré (32'), D. Wilson (45+3'), M. Pinnock (50').

Sutton Utd controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.