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Sutton Utd vs Mansfield Town — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mansfield Town
Mansfield Town
12/23/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 23VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd37%
×Draw27%
Mansfield Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.27
Mansfield Town
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 136 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Mansfield Town
1.38

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Mansfield Town
1.13

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Mansfield Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
64%
Sutton Utd or Mansfield Town
73%
Draw or Mansfield Town
63%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
16%
Mansfield Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
72%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
36%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
14%
Mansfield Town 1+ goals
71%
Mansfield Town 2+ goals
35%
Mansfield Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
51%
Mansfield Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Mansfield Town defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mansfield Town attack 1.38 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
37%
level
27%
Mansfield Town scores more
36%

Sutton Utd at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Sutton Utd 0–2 Mansfield Town

Mansfield Town beat Sutton Utd 2-0 in League Two on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.