Sutton Utd 2–0 Mansfield Town: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mansfield Town

Omar Bugiel 69'

L. John 4'

11/23/2021

League Two · Round 18VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd39%

×Draw27%

Mansfield Town34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchMansfield Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.17

Sutton Utd

1.28

Mansfield Town

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 141 away

1.41

creates per match

1.25

1.09

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Mansfield Town

1.25

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Mansfield Town

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Mansfield Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Mansfield Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

66%

Sutton Utd or Mansfield Town

73%

Draw or Mansfield Town

61%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

17%

Mansfield Town wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

72%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

37%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

14%

Mansfield Town 1+ goals

69%

Mansfield Town 2+ goals

33%

Mansfield Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

54%

Mansfield Town (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Mansfield Town away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.16 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Mansfield Town defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Mansfield Town attack 1.25 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

39%

level

27%

Mansfield Town scores more

34%

Sutton Utd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

L. John

Sutton Utd · D

8.2

Match Events

4'

5'

32'

46'

67'

T. Sinclair← G. Maris

69'

Omar Bugiel

72'

Ollie Clarke

73'

W. Forrester← O. Hawkins

78'

D. Wilson← I. Olaofe

82'

R. Bennett← Omar Bugiel

90+2'

W. Randall-Hurren← R. Korboa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonMansfield

Overview

42%Possession58%

12Total Shots14

2Corners5

17Fouls17

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target3

5Off Target7

3Blocked4

7Inside Box8

5Outside Box6

Passing

42%Possession58%

284Total Passes386

147Accurate Passes237

52%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls17

0Yellow Cards3

4Offsides0