Sutton Utd 1–0 Hartlepool: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hartlepool

B. Goodliffe 25'

9/14/2021

League Two · Round 3VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd49%

×Draw25%

Hartlepool26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchHartlepool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.07

Sutton Utd

1.59

Hartlepool

1.07

Sutton Utd creates 49% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 81 away

1.41

creates per match

1.05

1.09

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Hartlepool

1.05

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Hartlepool

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Hartlepool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

74%

Sutton Utd or Hartlepool

75%

Draw or Hartlepool

51%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

26%

Hartlepool wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

80%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

47%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

21%

Hartlepool 1+ goals

66%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

29%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

66%

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Hartlepool away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.78 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Hartlepool defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.59

Hartlepool attack 1.05 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

49%

level

25%

Hartlepool scores more

26%

Sutton Utd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

R. Milsom

Sutton Utd · D

8.2

Match Events

25'

B. Goodliffe↳ R. Milsom

61'

D. Ferguson← O. Odusina

62'

O. Olomola← M. Smith

63'

Omar Bugiel← R. Bennett

67'

D. Wilson← T. Sho-Silva

70'

Nicky Featherstone

74'

Omar Bugiel

74'

Neill Byrne

77'

M. Cullen← W. Goodwin

86'

Mark Cullen

90+1'

Robert Milsom

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonHartlepool

Overview

51%Possession49%

19Total Shots4

10Corners5

8Fouls17

Shots

19Total Shots4

7On Target2

8Off Target1

4Blocked1

12Inside Box4

7Outside Box0

Passing

51%Possession49%

286Total Passes283

178Accurate Passes173

62%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

8Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1