Hartlepool 2–2 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Hartlepool

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Sutton Utd

D. Dodds 45+3'

D. Kemp 43'

L. Angol 31'

D. Ajiboye 18'

2/11/2023

League Two · Round 31The Suit Direct Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Hartlepool43%

×Draw26%

Sutton Utd31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HartlepoolExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.21

Hartlepool

1.47

Sutton Utd

1.21

Hartlepool creates 21% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 69 away

1.20

creates per match

1.12

1.30

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Hartlepool

1.20

Sutton Utd

1.12

allows per match

Hartlepool

1.30

Sutton Utd

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hartlepool+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hartlepool ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hartlepool or draw

69%

Hartlepool or Sutton Utd

74%

Draw or Sutton Utd

57%

Winning margin

Hartlepool wins by 2+

21%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hartlepool 1+ goals

77%

Hartlepool 2+ goals

43%

Hartlepool 3+ goals

18%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

70%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

34%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hartlepool (draw refunded)

58%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hartlepool at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.30 · 82 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hartlepool attack 1.20 + Sutton Utd defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sutton Utd attack 1.12 + Hartlepool defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hartlepool scores more

43%

level

26%

Sutton Utd scores more

31%

Hartlepool at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hartlepool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

A. Smith

Sutton Utd · M

8.0

Match Events

13'

Oliver Finney

14'

H. Beautyman← W. Randall-Hurren

18'

31'

34'

37'

37'

43'

45+3'

58'

60'

69'

71'

K. Kouassi← Omar Bugiel

73'

David Ferguson

77'

T. Trusty← N. Featherstone

77'

B. Kiernan← C. Jennings

81'

Joe Kizzi

85'

D. Wilson← L. Angol

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HartlepoolSutton

Overview

65%Possession35%

13Total Shots18

3Corners7

11Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots18

6On Target7

4Off Target6

3Blocked5

8Inside Box13

5Outside Box5

Passing

65%Possession35%

470Total Passes249

358Accurate Passes133

76%Pass Accuracy53%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0