Sutton Utd 0–1 Gateshead: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gateshead

L. Hannant 53' (pen)

10/23/2024

League #43 · Round 15VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sutton Utd39%

×Draw25%

Gateshead36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchGateshead

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.42

Sutton Utd

1.48

Gateshead

1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 10 away

1.47

creates per match

1.30

1.53

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.47

Gateshead

1.30

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.53

Gateshead

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Gateshead+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Gateshead →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

64%

Sutton Utd or Gateshead

75%

Draw or Gateshead

61%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

19%

Gateshead wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

77%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

43%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

19%

Gateshead 1+ goals

76%

Gateshead 2+ goals

41%

Gateshead 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

52%

Gateshead (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Gateshead away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.47 + Gateshead defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gateshead attack 1.30 + Sutton Utd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

39%

level

25%

Gateshead scores more

36%

Sutton Utd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

E. Vaz

53'

L. HannantPenalty

61'

T. Newton

71'

O. Oseni← M. Beck

72'

B. Worman← J. Butterfield

73'

M. Rush← Eduino Vaz

78'

J. J. Harris

79'

C. Colkett← J. Malcolm

80'

85'

88'

89'

90+3'

90+6'

Sutton

Gateshead

1

Brooks

46

Jones

4

▼

Butterfie

10

Whelan

8

Booty

19

⚽

14

23

16

17

▼

Beck

45

▼

1

4

35

12

▼

18

7

6

14

19

▼

Sivi

23

Harris

9

Davies

Manager: S. Morison

73'▲M. Rush←▼Eduino Vaz

80'▲D. De Silva←▼J. Sivi

Sutton Utd substitutes

10Rush11Silva25Arnold3Okoli17Boateng

Manager: C. Magnay

71'▲O. Oseni←▼M. Beck

72'▲B. Worman←▼J. Butterfield

79'▲C. Colkett←▼J. Malcolm

89'▲J. Home←▼C. Colkett

Gateshead substitutes

9Oseni11Worman34Colkett27Home7Allan2Tinkler30Basey