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Sutton Utd vs Forest Green — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Forest Green
Forest Green
9/2/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 6VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd39%
×Draw27%
Forest Green34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.31
Forest Green
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 91 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Forest Green
1.35

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Forest Green
1.22

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
66%
Sutton Utd or Forest Green
73%
Draw or Forest Green
61%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
17%
Forest Green wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
73%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
38%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
14%
Forest Green 1+ goals
70%
Forest Green 2+ goals
34%
Forest Green 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
53%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Forest Green away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.22 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Forest Green defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Forest Green attack 1.35 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
39%
level
27%
Forest Green scores more
34%

Sutton Utd at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Sutton Utd 0–1 Forest Green

Forest Green beat Sutton Utd 1-0 in League Two on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.