Sutton Utd 2–1 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Exeter City

R. Milsom 89' (pen)

Omar Bugiel 8'

T. Dieng 9'

1/1/2022

League Two · Round 25VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd40%

×Draw26%

Exeter City33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.22

Sutton Utd

1.36

Exeter City

1.22

Sutton Utd creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 97 away

1.41

creates per match

1.35

1.09

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Exeter City

1.35

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Exeter City

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

67%

Sutton Utd or Exeter City

74%

Draw or Exeter City

60%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

18%

Exeter City wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

74%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

39%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

16%

Exeter City 1+ goals

70%

Exeter City 2+ goals

34%

Exeter City 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

54%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.32 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Exeter City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.36

Exeter City attack 1.35 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

40%

level

26%

Exeter City scores more

33%

Sutton Utd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Omar Bugiel

Sutton Utd · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

Omar Bugiel↳ J. Kizzi

9'

T. Dieng

64'

Jonathan Patrick Barden

66'

J. Dyer← C. Diabate

73'

J. Grounds← T. Dieng

78'

M. Jay← O. Edwards

80'

R. Bennett← Omar Bugiel

89'

R. MilsomPenalty

90+7'

B. Wyatt← I. Olaofe

90+3'

K. Davis← J. Barden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonExeter

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots9

5Corners1

11Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target2

2Off Target4

5Blocked3

5Inside Box2

7Outside Box7

Passing

50%Possession50%

325Total Passes329

182Accurate Passes186

56%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides3