Sutton Utd 3–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Crawley Town

A. Smith 85', 4'

R. Bennett 7'

4/26/2022

League Two · Round 40VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd46%

×Draw26%

Crawley Town28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

Sutton Utd

1.52

Crawley Town

1.13

Sutton Utd creates 35% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 151 away

1.41

creates per match

1.17

1.09

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Crawley Town

1.17

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Crawley Town

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

72%

Sutton Utd or Crawley Town

74%

Draw or Crawley Town

54%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

23%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

78%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

45%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

20%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

68%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

31%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

62%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

46%

level

26%

Crawley Town scores more

28%

Sutton Utd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

A. Smith

Sutton Utd · M

8.9

Match Events

4'

A. Smith↳ H. Beautyman

7'

R. Bennett↳ R. Milsom

34'

Archie Davies

35'

Jonathan Patrick Barden

52'

Aramide Oteh

63'

I. Hutchinson← A. Oteh

69'

M. Marshall← T. Craig

78'

I. Olaofe← D. Wilson

81'

E. Boldewijn← W. Randall-Hurren

85'

A. Smith↳ D. Ajiboye

90+2'

Ashley Nadesan

90+1'

K. Kouassi← J. Barden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonCrawley

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots10

3Corners5

8Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots10

4On Target4

4Off Target4

6Blocked2

10Inside Box6

4Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

368Total Passes445

233Accurate Passes287

63%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1