Sutton Utd 4–0 Carlisle: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Carlisle

D. Ajiboye 81'

A. Smith 70', 37'

D. Wilson 3'

9/25/2021

League Two · Round 9VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd44%

×Draw27%

Carlisle29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchCarlisle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.08

Sutton Utd

1.38

Carlisle

1.08

Sutton Utd creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 115 away

1.41

creates per match

1.07

1.09

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Carlisle

1.07

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Carlisle

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Carlisle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Carlisle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

71%

Sutton Utd or Carlisle

73%

Draw or Carlisle

56%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

21%

Carlisle wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

75%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

40%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

16%

Carlisle 1+ goals

66%

Carlisle 2+ goals

29%

Carlisle 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

60%

Carlisle (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Carlisle away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.35 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Carlisle defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.38

Carlisle attack 1.07 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

44%

level

27%

Carlisle scores more

29%

Sutton Utd at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Bouzanis

Sutton Utd · G

8.6

Match Events

3'

D. Wilson↳ D. Ajiboye

37'

A. Smith↳ D. Wilson

53'

M. Mampala← K. Mellor

56'

56'

57'

62'

66'

70'

71'

71'

76'

80'

Omar Bugiel← R. Bennett

81'

C. Rowe← B. Goodliffe

81'

D. Ajiboye

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonCarlisle

Overview

49%Possession51%

17Total Shots19

7Corners8

13Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots19

7On Target7

6Off Target6

4Blocked6

13Inside Box12

4Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

299Total Passes298

145Accurate Passes154

48%Pass Accuracy52%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2