Carlisle 3–0 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Carlisle

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sutton Utd

R. Galvin 41'

H. Macadam 23', 10'

4/11/2026

League #43 · Round 44Brunton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Carlisle45%

×Draw25%

Sutton Utd30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CarlisleExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.25

Carlisle

1.60

Sutton Utd

1.25

Carlisle creates 28% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 45 away

2.00

creates per match

1.24

1.25

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Carlisle

2.00

Sutton Utd

1.24

allows per match

Carlisle

1.25

Sutton Utd

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carlisle+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carlisle ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Carlisle or draw

70%

Carlisle or Sutton Utd

75%

Draw or Sutton Utd

55%

Winning margin

Carlisle wins by 2+

23%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Carlisle 1+ goals

80%

Carlisle 2+ goals

47%

Carlisle 3+ goals

22%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

71%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

36%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Carlisle (draw refunded)

60%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carlisle at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carlisle attack 2.00 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.60

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Carlisle defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Carlisle scores more

45%

level

25%

Sutton Utd scores more

30%

Carlisle at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Carlisle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

L. Simper

10'

H. Macadam↳ G. Kelly

23'

H. Macadam↳ C. Whelan

28'

41'

44'

60'

61'

D. Ogbonna← J. Francis

63'

63'

65'

74'

77'

J. Williams← C. Whelan

77'

E. Yeboah← D. Ajiboye

78'

C. Wyke← G. Kelly

83'

T. Byron← B. Topalloj

85'

A. Davies← R. Linney

85'

C. Harper← R. Galvin

Carlisle

Sutton

1

Sims

50

▼

Donkor

26

Eccleston

42

Muller

39

▼

25

40

23

48

▼

8

34

1

18

5

4

12

⚽

▼

Galvin

7

▼

Ajiboye

37

⚽2

Macadam

16

Wearne

8

A

▼

Whelan

10

A

▼

Linney

9

A

▼

Kelly

Manager: Mark Hughes

77'▲J. Williams←▼C. Whelan

77'▲E. Yeboah←▼D. Ajiboye

78'▲C. Wyke←▼G. Kelly

85'▲A. Davies←▼R. Linney

85'▲C. Harper←▼R. Galvin

Carlisle substitutes

13Mair2Davies3Harper22Williams23Wyke25Yeboah26Mugabi

Manager: Jon Meeney

61'▲D. Ogbonna←▼J. Francis

63'▲D. Urpens←▼K. Donkor

83'▲T. Byron←▼B. Topalloj

Sutton Utd substitutes

13Haigh9Rodari14Pruti18Ogbonna36Urpens47Eze51Byron

Match Recap: Carlisle vs Sutton Utd

Carlisle beat Sutton Utd 3-0 in League #43 on April 11, 2026.

Goals: H. Macadam (10', 23'), R. Galvin (41').

The match was played at Brunton Park in Carlisle.

Carlisle vs Sutton Utd — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Carlisle vs Sutton Utd