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Sutton Utd vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Barrow
Barrow
1/13/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 28VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd46%
×Draw27%
Barrow28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.42
Barrow
1.04

Sutton Utd creates 37% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 138 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.41
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.09
Barrow
1.44

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
72%
Sutton Utd or Barrow
73%
Draw or Barrow
54%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
22%
Barrow wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
76%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
41%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
17%
Barrow 1+ goals
65%
Barrow 2+ goals
28%
Barrow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
62%
Barrow (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barrow attack 0.99 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
46%
level
27%
Barrow scores more
28%

Sutton Utd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Sutton Utd 2–2 Barrow

Sutton Utd and Barrow drew 2-2 in League Two on January 13, 2024.

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.