Sutton Utd 1–0 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Sutton Utd

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barrow

D. Ajiboye 16'

11/27/2021

League Two · Round 19VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sutton Utd46%

×Draw27%

Barrow28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.04

Sutton Utd

1.42

Barrow

1.04

Sutton Utd creates 37% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 138 away

1.41

creates per match

0.99

1.09

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.41

Barrow

0.99

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.09

Barrow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

72%

Sutton Utd or Barrow

73%

Draw or Barrow

54%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

22%

Barrow wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

76%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

41%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

17%

Barrow 1+ goals

65%

Barrow 2+ goals

28%

Barrow 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

62%

Barrow (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.09 · 69 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.41 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barrow attack 0.99 + Sutton Utd defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

46%

level

27%

Barrow scores more

28%

Sutton Utd at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

D. Bouzanis

Sutton Utd · G

7.6

Match Events

13'

Ben Goodliffe

16'

D. Ajiboye

45'

Josh Kay

46'

R. Hutton← J. Stevens

51'

Omar Bugiel

74'

Ollie Banks

74'

R. Bennett← Omar Bugiel

78'

82'

82'

89'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SuttonBarrow

Overview

35%Possession65%

10Total Shots14

1Corners15

14Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots14

3On Target3

4Off Target7

3Blocked4

5Inside Box9

5Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

270Total Passes490

175Accurate Passes380

65%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1