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Sutton Utd vs Altrincham — League #43 2026

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Altrincham
Altrincham
4/18/2026League #43League #43

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sutton Utd41%
×Draw24%
Altrincham35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.57
Altrincham
1.43

Sutton Utd creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 3 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.47
Altrincham
1.33

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.53
Altrincham
1.67

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Altrincham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Altrincham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
65%
Sutton Utd or Altrincham
76%
Draw or Altrincham
59%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
20%
Altrincham wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
79%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
46%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
21%
Altrincham 1+ goals
76%
Altrincham 2+ goals
42%
Altrincham 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
54%
Altrincham (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Altrincham away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.47 + Altrincham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.57

Altrincham attack 1.33 + Sutton Utd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
41%
level
24%
Altrincham scores more
35%

Sutton Utd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #43: Sutton Utd 1–2 Altrincham

Altrincham beat Sutton Utd 2-1 in League #43 on April 18, 2026.