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Sutton Utd vs Aldershot Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aldershot Town
Aldershot Town
L. Tolaj 23'
7/29/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3VBS Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sutton Utd19%
×Draw20%
Aldershot Town62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.17
Aldershot Town
2.27

Aldershot Town creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.33
Aldershot Town
3.21

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.33
Aldershot Town
1.00

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
Aldershot Town+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Aldershot Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
38%
Sutton Utd or Aldershot Town
80%
Draw or Aldershot Town
81%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
7%
Aldershot Town wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
69%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
33%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
11%
Aldershot Town 1+ goals
90%
Aldershot Town 2+ goals
66%
Aldershot Town 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
23%
Aldershot Town (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Aldershot Town away — creates 3.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.33 + Aldershot Town defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Aldershot Town attack 3.21 + Sutton Utd defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
19%
level
20%
Aldershot Town scores more
62%

Aldershot Town at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Aldershot Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
L. Tolaj

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Sutton Utd 0–1 Aldershot Town

Aldershot Town beat Sutton Utd 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 29, 2023.

Goals: L. Tolaj (23').

The match was played at VBS Community Stadium in Sutton, Surrey.