Sutton Utd 2–1 Aldershot Town: Result & Stats

Sutton Utd

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Aldershot Town

R. Lafayette 79'

T. Wright 48'

S. Rendell 57' (pen)

4/28/2018

League #43 · Round 55The Borough Sports Ground (Sutton, Surrey)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Sutton Utd47%

×Draw24%

Aldershot Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutton UtdExpected goals in this matchAldershot Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.23

Sutton Utd

1.65

Aldershot Town

1.23

Sutton Utd creates 34% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 18 away

1.47

creates per match

0.94

1.53

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Sutton Utd

1.47

Aldershot Town

0.94

allows per match

Sutton Utd

1.53

Aldershot Town

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Aldershot Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

Aldershot Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw

71%

Sutton Utd or Aldershot Town

76%

Draw or Aldershot Town

53%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

25%

Aldershot Town wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

81%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

49%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

23%

Aldershot Town 1+ goals

71%

Aldershot Town 2+ goals

35%

Aldershot Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

62%

Aldershot Town (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

Aldershot Town away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.47 + Aldershot Town defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.65

Aldershot Town attack 0.94 + Sutton Utd defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sutton Utd scores more

47%

level

24%

Aldershot Town scores more

29%

Sutton Utd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

H. Beautyman← K. Cadogan

48'

T. Wright

56'

F. Robert← J. McQuoid

57'

S. RendellPenalty

67'

N. Kabamba← S. Fenelon

71'

R. Lafayette← K. Davis

78'

B. Harrison← T. Wright

79'

R. Lafayette

84'

J. Gallagher← C. Alexander

Sutton

Aldershot

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Wright

Manager: P. Doswell

45'▲H. Beautyman←▼K. Cadogan

71'▲R. Lafayette←▼K. Davis

78'▲B. Harrison←▼T. Wright

Sutton Utd substitutes

BeautymanLafayetteHarrisonStearnDowner

Manager: G. Waddock

56'▲F. Robert←▼J. McQuoid

67'▲N. Kabamba←▼S. Fenelon

84'▲J. Gallagher←▼C. Alexander

Aldershot Town substitutes

RobertKabambaGallagherMcDonnellCole