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Sutton Utd vs AFC Wimbledon — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
T. Babalola 57'
M. Hippolyte 90' (pen)
Z. Nelson 86'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sutton Utd28%
×Draw25%
AFC Wimbledon47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutton Utd
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.60

AFC Wimbledon creates 37% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Sutton Utd
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.88

allows per match

Sutton Utd
1.33
AFC Wimbledon
1.00

finishing

Sutton Utd+0.00on par
AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutton Utd ↓

AFC Wimbledon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sutton Utd or draw
53%
Sutton Utd or AFC Wimbledon
75%
Draw or AFC Wimbledon
72%

Winning margin

Sutton Utd wins by 2+
11%
AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sutton Utd 1+ goals
69%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
33%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
11%
AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
80%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
47%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
37%
AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutton Utd at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutton Utd attack 1.33 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.88 + Sutton Utd defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sutton Utd scores more
28%
level
25%
AFC Wimbledon scores more
47%

AFC Wimbledon at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'
T. Babalola
86'
Z. Nelson
90'
M. HippolytePenalty
Sutton
AFC
Jon Meeney
Manager: Jon Meeney
Johnnie Jackson
Manager: Johnnie Jackson

Match Recap: Sutton Utd vs AFC Wimbledon

AFC Wimbledon beat Sutton Utd 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: T. Babalola (57'), Z. Nelson (86'), M. Hippolyte (90' pen).