Sutjeska 2–0 Rudar Velenje: Result & Stats

Sutjeska

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rudar Velenje

6/30/2020

First League · Round 31Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Sutjeska57%

×Draw23%

Rudar Velenje20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SutjeskaExpected goals in this matchRudar Velenje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.93

Sutjeska

1.77

Rudar Velenje

0.93

Sutjeska creates 90% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 90 away

1.79

creates per match

0.86

1.00

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Sutjeska

1.79

Rudar Velenje

0.86

allows per match

Sutjeska

1.00

Rudar Velenje

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Rudar Velenje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw

80%

Sutjeska or Rudar Velenje

77%

Draw or Rudar Velenje

43%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+

32%

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals

83%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

53%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

26%

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

61%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

24%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

74%

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

Rudar Velenje away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.76 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.79 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Rudar Velenje attack 0.86 + Sutjeska defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sutjeska scores more

57%

level

23%

Rudar Velenje scores more

20%

Sutjeska at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff