Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rudar vs Sutjeska — First League 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sutjeska
Sutjeska
5/25/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 36Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Rudar28%
×Draw27%
Sutjeska45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.02
Sutjeska
1.36

Sutjeska creates 33% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 123 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.10
Sutjeska
1.44

allows per match

Rudar
1.28
Sutjeska
0.93

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Sutjeska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
55%
Rudar or Sutjeska
73%
Draw or Sutjeska
72%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
10%
Sutjeska wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
64%
Rudar 2+ goals
27%
Rudar 3+ goals
8%
Sutjeska 1+ goals
74%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
39%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
39%
Sutjeska (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.93 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.10 + Sutjeska defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Sutjeska attack 1.44 + Rudar defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rudar scores more
28%
level
27%
Sutjeska scores more
45%

Sutjeska at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar vs Sutjeska

Rudar beat Sutjeska 2-1 in First League on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.