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Jedinstvo Bošnjace vs SFS Borac — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Jedinstvo Bošnjace
Jedinstvo Bošnjace
FT
1 – 1
SFS Borac
SFS Borac
8/24/2019Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 2Stadion Bošnjace

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jedinstvo Bošnjace39%
×Draw25%
SFS Borac37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jedinstvo Bošnjace
1.48
SFS Borac
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 72 away

creates per match

Jedinstvo Bošnjace
1.38
SFS Borac
1.10

allows per match

Jedinstvo Bošnjace
1.75
SFS Borac
1.58

finishing

Jedinstvo Bošnjace+0.00on par
SFS Borac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jedinstvo Bošnjace ↓

SFS Borac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Jedinstvo Bošnjace or draw
63%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace or SFS Borac
75%
Draw or SFS Borac
61%

Winning margin

Jedinstvo Bošnjace wins by 2+
19%
SFS Borac wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Jedinstvo Bošnjace 1+ goals
77%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace 2+ goals
43%
Jedinstvo Bošnjace 3+ goals
19%
SFS Borac 1+ goals
76%
SFS Borac 2+ goals
42%
SFS Borac 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Jedinstvo Bošnjace (draw refunded)
51%
SFS Borac (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jedinstvo Bošnjace at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

SFS Borac away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.58 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jedinstvo Bošnjace attack 1.38 + SFS Borac defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

SFS Borac attack 1.10 + Jedinstvo Bošnjace defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jedinstvo Bošnjace scores more
39%
level
25%
SFS Borac scores more
37%

Jedinstvo Bošnjace at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Jedinstvo Bošnjace will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jedinstvo Bošnjace vs SFS Borac

Jedinstvo Bošnjace and SFS Borac drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - East on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Bošnjace in Bošnjace.