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Sutjeska vs Petrovac — First League 2019

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Petrovac
Petrovac
11/5/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 15Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Sutjeska49%
×Draw25%
Petrovac25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska
1.58
Petrovac
1.06

Sutjeska creates 49% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 125 away

creates per match

Sutjeska
1.79
Petrovac
1.11

allows per match

Sutjeska
1.00
Petrovac
1.37

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par
Petrovac+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Petrovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw
75%
Sutjeska or Petrovac
75%
Draw or Petrovac
51%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+
26%
Petrovac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals
79%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
47%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
21%
Petrovac 1+ goals
65%
Petrovac 2+ goals
29%
Petrovac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)
66%
Petrovac (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

Petrovac away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.37 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.79 + Petrovac defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.58

Petrovac attack 1.11 + Sutjeska defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sutjeska scores more
49%
level
25%
Petrovac scores more
25%

Sutjeska at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Sutjeska 3–2 Petrovac

Sutjeska beat Petrovac 3-2 in First League on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Bistrice in Nikšić.