Petrovac 0–1 Sutjeska: Result & Stats

Petrovac

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sutjeska

V. Cavor 36'

4/18/2026

First League · Round 30Stadion Mitar Mico Golis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Petrovac38%

×Draw28%

Sutjeska35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PetrovacExpected goals in this matchSutjeska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.17

Petrovac

1.23

Sutjeska

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 22 away

1.42

creates per match

1.55

0.79

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Petrovac

1.42

Sutjeska

1.55

allows per match

Petrovac

0.79

Sutjeska

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrovac+0.00on par

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrovac ↓

Sutjeska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Petrovac or draw

65%

Petrovac or Sutjeska

72%

Draw or Sutjeska

62%

Winning margin

Petrovac wins by 2+

16%

Sutjeska wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Petrovac 1+ goals

71%

Petrovac 2+ goals

35%

Petrovac 3+ goals

13%

Sutjeska 1+ goals

69%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

33%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Petrovac (draw refunded)

52%

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrovac at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

Sutjeska away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrovac attack 1.42 + Sutjeska defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.23

Sutjeska attack 1.55 + Petrovac defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Petrovac scores more

38%

level

28%

Sutjeska scores more

35%

Petrovac at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Petrovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

V. Cavor

38'

A. Kecojevic

46'

I. Vukcevic← A. Kecojevic

46'

M. Jukovic← B. Toskovic

51'

S. Vukcevic← V. Giljen

62'

N. Zvrko← M. Roganovic

64'

A. Golubovic← V. Kalezic

71'

76'

90+3'

90+6'

Petrovac

Sutjeska

1

▼

Giljen

4

Vracar

10

▼

15

19

22

24

⚽

Cavor

30

▼

Kecojevic

44

▼

Hocko

70

▼

72

25

5

10

▼

11

13

17

21

29

33

44

99

▼

Roganovic

Manager: Zdravko Dragicevic

62'▲N. Zvrko←▼M. Roganovic

76'▲V. Kordic←▼A. Basic

Petrovac substitutes

1Licina7Zvrko8Bakic14Balevic19Vukicevic27Fabris32Tesovic45Bastrica98Kordic

Manager: Milija Savovic

46'▲I. Vukcevic←▼A. Kecojevic

46'▲M. Jukovic←▼B. Toskovic

51'▲S. Vukcevic←▼V. Giljen

64'▲A. Golubovic←▼V. Kalezic

71'▲A. Scekic←▼D. Hocko

Sutjeska substitutes

31Vukcevic2Golubovic6Dedic7Vukcevic9Anicic20Cadjenovic55Scekic88Jukovic99Mrvaljevic