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Sutjeska vs Mladost DG — First League 2025

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
Preview
18:00
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
8/30/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 5Stadion Gradski
Big match
55%
Sutjeska
model favours
55%23%22%

Mladost DG score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sutjeska55%
×Draw23%
Mladost DG22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska
1.77
Mladost DG
1.02

Sutjeska creates 74% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sutjeska
1.91
Mladost DG
1.21

allows per match

Sutjeska
0.83
Mladost DG
1.63

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par
Mladost DG+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Mladost DG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw
78%
Sutjeska or Mladost DG
77%
Draw or Mladost DG
45%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+
31%
Mladost DG wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals
83%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
53%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
26%
Mladost DG 1+ goals
64%
Mladost DG 2+ goals
27%
Mladost DG 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)
72%
Mladost DG (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Mladost DG away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.91 + Mladost DG defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.77

Mladost DG attack 1.21 + Sutjeska defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Sutjeska scores more
55%
level
23%
Mladost DG scores more
22%

Sutjeska at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in only 23% of Sutjeska’s matches
  • Sutjeska have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • 69% of Sutjeska’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Sutjeska
LLLL
DG
LWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sutjeska host Mladost DG

August 30, 2026: Sutjeska take on Mladost DG in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sutjeska host Mladost DG at Stadion Gradski.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.