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Sutjeska vs Mladost DG — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
2/7/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sutjeska47%
×Draw25%
Mladost DG28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska
1.60
Mladost DG
1.17

Sutjeska creates 37% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sutjeska
1.38
Mladost DG
1.33

allows per match

Sutjeska
1.00
Mladost DG
1.83

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par
Mladost DG+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Mladost DG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw
72%
Sutjeska or Mladost DG
75%
Draw or Mladost DG
53%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+
24%
Mladost DG wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals
80%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
47%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
22%
Mladost DG 1+ goals
69%
Mladost DG 2+ goals
33%
Mladost DG 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)
63%
Mladost DG (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Mladost DG away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.38 + Mladost DG defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.60

Mladost DG attack 1.33 + Sutjeska defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sutjeska scores more
47%
level
25%
Mladost DG scores more
28%

Sutjeska at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Sutjeska
Mladost
Milija Savovic
Manager: Milija Savovic
Marko Scepanovic
Manager: Marko Scepanovic

Friendlies Clubs: Sutjeska 1–1 Mladost DG

Sutjeska and Mladost DG drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 7, 2026.