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Sutjeska vs Mladost DG — First League 2019

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mladost DG
Mladost DG
3/13/2024First LeagueFirst League · Round 25Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sutjeska54%
×Draw24%
Mladost DG23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska
1.76
Mladost DG
1.06

Sutjeska creates 66% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sutjeska
1.79
Mladost DG
1.11

allows per match

Sutjeska
1.00
Mladost DG
1.73

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par
Mladost DG+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Mladost DG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw
77%
Sutjeska or Mladost DG
76%
Draw or Mladost DG
46%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+
30%
Mladost DG wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals
83%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
52%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
26%
Mladost DG 1+ goals
65%
Mladost DG 2+ goals
29%
Mladost DG 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)
70%
Mladost DG (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

Mladost DG away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.79 + Mladost DG defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.76

Mladost DG attack 1.11 + Sutjeska defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sutjeska scores more
54%
level
24%
Mladost DG scores more
23%

Sutjeska at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutjeska vs Mladost DG

Sutjeska beat Mladost DG 2-1 in First League on March 13, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Bistrice in Nikšić.