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Sutjeska vs FK Sarajevo — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FK Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo
A. Boljevic 68' (pen)
A. Ljajic 59' (pen)
L. Mikic 18'
7/1/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sutjeska44%
×Draw28%
FK Sarajevo28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska
1.31
FK Sarajevo
1.00

Sutjeska creates 31% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sutjeska
1.38
FK Sarajevo
1.00

allows per match

Sutjeska
1.00
FK Sarajevo
1.25

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par
FK Sarajevo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

FK Sarajevo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw
72%
Sutjeska or FK Sarajevo
72%
Draw or FK Sarajevo
56%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+
20%
FK Sarajevo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals
73%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
38%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
14%
FK Sarajevo 1+ goals
63%
FK Sarajevo 2+ goals
26%
FK Sarajevo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)
61%
FK Sarajevo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

FK Sarajevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.38 + FK Sarajevo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

FK Sarajevo attack 1.00 + Sutjeska defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sutjeska scores more
44%
level
28%
FK Sarajevo scores more
28%

Sutjeska at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
L. Mikic
59'
A. LjajicPenalty
68'
A. BoljevicPenalty
Sutjeska
FK
Milija Savovic
Manager: Milija Savovic
Mario Cvitanovic
Manager: Mario Cvitanovic

Friendlies Clubs: Sutjeska 1–2 FK Sarajevo

FK Sarajevo beat Sutjeska 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 1, 2026.

Goals: L. Mikic (18'), A. Ljajic (59' pen), A. Boljevic (68' pen).