Sutjeska 1–3 Buducnost Podgorica: Result & Stats

Sutjeska

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Buducnost Podgorica

D. Miranović 89'

I. Bojović 90+4'

I. Bulatović 66'

O. Gašević 29'

4/11/2025

First League · Round 29Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sutjeska47%

×Draw26%

Buducnost Podgorica27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SutjeskaExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.04

Sutjeska

1.48

Buducnost Podgorica

1.04

Sutjeska creates 42% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

1.91

creates per match

1.26

0.83

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Sutjeska

1.91

Buducnost Podgorica

1.26

allows per match

Sutjeska

0.83

Buducnost Podgorica

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw

73%

Sutjeska or Buducnost Podgorica

74%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

53%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+

24%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals

77%

Sutjeska 2+ goals

43%

Sutjeska 3+ goals

19%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

65%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

28%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)

64%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.91, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.91 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.48

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.26 + Sutjeska defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sutjeska scores more

47%

level

26%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

27%

Sutjeska at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

I. Pajovic

26'

I. Ivanovic

29'

O. Gašević

38'

B. Kopitovic

57'

I. Bojović← I. Ivanović

58'

I. Arbello← I. Pajović

58'

I. Vukčević← A. Desančić

66'

I. Bulatović

72'

P. Vuković← P. Grbić

72'

A. Kostić← I. Bulatović

75'

A. Barquett← A. Vlahović

82'

N. Đurković← B. Tošković

83'

D. Vukanić← M. Milićković

83'

L. Savović← N. Pišćević

89'

90+1'

90+4'

90+4'

Sutjeska

Buducnost

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: M. Savović

58'▲I. Arbello←▼I. Pajović

58'▲I. Vukčević←▼A. Desančić

75'▲A. Barquett←▼A. Vlahović

82'▲N. Đurković←▼B. Tošković

Sutjeska substitutes

ArbelloVukčevićBarquettĐurković

Manager: I. Brnović

57'▲I. Bojović←▼I. Ivanović

72'▲P. Vuković←▼P. Grbić

72'▲A. Kostić←▼I. Bulatović

83'▲D. Vukanić←▼M. Milićković

83'▲L. Savović←▼N. Pišćević

Buducnost Podgorica substitutes

BojovićVukovićKostićVukanićSavović