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Sutjeska vs Buducnost Podgorica — First League 2019

Sutjeska
Sutjeska
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Buducnost Podgorica
Buducnost Podgorica
10/30/2022First LeagueFirst League · Round 14Stadion Kraj Bistrice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Sutjeska38%
×Draw25%
Buducnost Podgorica36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska
1.42
Buducnost Podgorica
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 124 home / 123 away

creates per match

Sutjeska
1.79
Buducnost Podgorica
1.75

allows per match

Sutjeska
1.00
Buducnost Podgorica
1.05

finishing

Sutjeska+0.00on par
Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sutjeska or draw
64%
Sutjeska or Buducnost Podgorica
75%
Draw or Buducnost Podgorica
62%

Winning margin

Sutjeska wins by 2+
18%
Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Sutjeska 1+ goals
76%
Sutjeska 2+ goals
41%
Sutjeska 3+ goals
17%
Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals
75%
Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals
40%
Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska (draw refunded)
51%
Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.00 · 124 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska attack 1.79 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.42

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Sutjeska defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sutjeska scores more
38%
level
25%
Buducnost Podgorica scores more
36%

Sutjeska at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sutjeska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutjeska vs Buducnost Podgorica

Buducnost Podgorica beat Sutjeska 1-0 in First League on October 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Kraj Bistrice in Nikšić.