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Sutjeska Foča vs Drina Zvornik — 1st League - RS 2019

Sutjeska Foča
Sutjeska Foča
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Drina Zvornik
Drina Zvornik
8/16/20251st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Sutjeska Foča60%
×Draw23%
Drina Zvornik17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutjeska Foča
1.81
Drina Zvornik
0.84

Sutjeska Foča creates 115% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sutjeska Foča
1.78
Drina Zvornik
0.71

allows per match

Sutjeska Foča
0.98
Drina Zvornik
1.83

finishing

Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par
Drina Zvornik+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska Foča ↓

Drina Zvornik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Sutjeska Foča or draw
83%
Sutjeska Foča or Drina Zvornik
77%
Draw or Drina Zvornik
40%

Winning margin

Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+
35%
Drina Zvornik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals
84%
Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals
54%
Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals
27%
Drina Zvornik 1+ goals
57%
Drina Zvornik 2+ goals
21%
Drina Zvornik 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)
78%
Drina Zvornik (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska Foča at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

Drina Zvornik away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.83 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska Foča attack 1.78 + Drina Zvornik defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

Drina Zvornik attack 0.71 + Sutjeska Foča defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sutjeska Foča scores more
60%
level
23%
Drina Zvornik scores more
17%

Sutjeska Foča at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sutjeska Foča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sutjeska Foča vs Drina Zvornik

Sutjeska Foča and Drina Zvornik drew 0-0 in 1st League - RS on August 16, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Foča.