Sutjeska Foča 3–1 Borac Kozarska Dubica

Sutjeska Foča

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Borac Kozarska Dubica

11/9/2024

1st League - RS · RS - 15Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Sutjeska Foča65%

×Draw20%

Borac Kozarska Dubica15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sutjeska FočaExpected goals in this matchBorac Kozarska Dubica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.86

Sutjeska Foča

2.06

Borac Kozarska Dubica

0.86

Sutjeska Foča creates 140% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 64 away

1.78

creates per match

0.75

0.98

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Sutjeska Foča

1.78

Borac Kozarska Dubica

0.75

allows per match

Sutjeska Foča

0.98

Borac Kozarska Dubica

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sutjeska Foča+0.00on par

Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutjeska Foča ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sutjeska Foča or draw

85%

Sutjeska Foča or Borac Kozarska Dubica

80%

Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica

35%

Winning margin

Sutjeska Foča wins by 2+

41%

Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sutjeska Foča 1+ goals

87%

Sutjeska Foča 2+ goals

61%

Sutjeska Foča 3+ goals

34%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals

58%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals

21%

Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Sutjeska Foča (draw refunded)

81%

Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutjeska Foča at home — creates 1.78, concedes 0.98 · 96 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutjeska Foča attack 1.78 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.06

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + Sutjeska Foča defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Sutjeska Foča scores more

65%

level

20%

Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more

15%

Sutjeska Foča at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Sutjeska Foča will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff