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Sutherland Sharks vs NWS Spirit — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
NWS Spirit
NWS Spirit
2/24/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 2Seymour Shaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sutherland Sharks34%
×Draw26%
NWS Spirit41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutherland Sharks
1.29
NWS Spirit
1.45

NWS Spirit creates 12% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.00
NWS Spirit
1.30

allows per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.59
NWS Spirit
1.59

finishing

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par
NWS Spirit+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutherland Sharks ↓

NWS Spirit →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sutherland Sharks or draw
59%
Sutherland Sharks or NWS Spirit
74%
Draw or NWS Spirit
66%

Winning margin

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
15%
NWS Spirit wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
72%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
37%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
14%
NWS Spirit 1+ goals
77%
NWS Spirit 2+ goals
42%
NWS Spirit 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
45%
NWS Spirit (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutherland Sharks at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 86 matches

NWS Spirit away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.00 + NWS Spirit defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.29

NWS Spirit attack 1.30 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sutherland Sharks scores more
34%
level
26%
NWS Spirit scores more
41%

NWS Spirit at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "NWS Spirit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Sutherland Sharks 0–0 NWS Spirit

Sutherland Sharks and NWS Spirit drew 0-0 in New South Wales NPL on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Seymour Shaw Park in Sydney.