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NWS Spirit vs Sutherland Sharks — New South Wales NPL 2026

NWS Spirit
NWS Spirit
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
J. Gomez 45+1'
R. Shoueiki 78'
3/29/2025New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 8Christie Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

NWS Spirit47%
×Draw24%
Sutherland Sharks29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NWS Spirit
1.69
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

NWS Spirit creates 31% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 91 away

creates per match

NWS Spirit
1.74
Sutherland Sharks
1.29

allows per match

NWS Spirit
1.30
Sutherland Sharks
1.65

finishing

NWS Spirit+0.00on par
Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NWS Spirit ↓

Sutherland Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

NWS Spirit or draw
71%
NWS Spirit or Sutherland Sharks
76%
Draw or Sutherland Sharks
53%

Winning margin

NWS Spirit wins by 2+
25%
Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

NWS Spirit 1+ goals
82%
NWS Spirit 2+ goals
50%
NWS Spirit 3+ goals
24%
Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
72%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
37%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

NWS Spirit (draw refunded)
61%
Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NWS Spirit at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 57 matches

Sutherland Sharks away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.65 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NWS Spirit attack 1.74 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.29 + NWS Spirit defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NWS Spirit scores more
47%
level
24%
Sutherland Sharks scores more
29%

NWS Spirit at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NWS Spirit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'
J. Gomez
78'
R. Shoueiki
NWS
Sutherland
D. Perković
Manager: D. Perković
N. Dimovski
Manager: N. Dimovski

New South Wales NPL: NWS Spirit 1–1 Sutherland Sharks

NWS Spirit and Sutherland Sharks drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL on March 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Gomez (45+1'), R. Shoueiki (78').

The match was played at Christie Park in Macquarie Park.