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Sutherland Sharks vs Blacktown City — New South Wales NPL 2026

Sutherland Sharks
Sutherland Sharks
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Blacktown City
Blacktown City
6/8/2024New South Wales NPLNew South Wales NPL · Round 18Seymour Shaw Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 87+ matches

Sutherland Sharks28%
×Draw25%
Blacktown City47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sutherland Sharks
1.21
Blacktown City
1.63

Blacktown City creates 35% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 96 away

creates per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.00
Blacktown City
1.67

allows per match

Sutherland Sharks
1.59
Blacktown City
1.43

finishing

Sutherland Sharks+0.00on par
Blacktown City+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sutherland Sharks ↓

Blacktown City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sutherland Sharks or draw
53%
Sutherland Sharks or Blacktown City
75%
Draw or Blacktown City
72%

Winning margin

Sutherland Sharks wins by 2+
12%
Blacktown City wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sutherland Sharks 1+ goals
70%
Sutherland Sharks 2+ goals
34%
Sutherland Sharks 3+ goals
12%
Blacktown City 1+ goals
80%
Blacktown City 2+ goals
48%
Blacktown City 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sutherland Sharks (draw refunded)
38%
Blacktown City (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sutherland Sharks at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.59 · 87 matches

Blacktown City away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.43 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sutherland Sharks attack 1.00 + Blacktown City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Blacktown City attack 1.67 + Sutherland Sharks defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sutherland Sharks scores more
28%
level
25%
Blacktown City scores more
47%

Blacktown City at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Blacktown City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL: Sutherland Sharks 2–0 Blacktown City

Sutherland Sharks beat Blacktown City 2-0 in New South Wales NPL on June 8, 2024.

The match was played at Seymour Shaw Park in Sydney.