Sušica 1–0 Šumadija Aranđelovac: Result & Stats

Sušica

FT

1 – 0

Šumadija Aranđelovac

3/21/2021

Srpska Liga - West · West - 20Stadion FK Sušica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sušica80%

×Draw13%

Šumadija Aranđelovac8%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SušicaExpected goals in this matchŠumadija Aranđelovac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

0.82

Sušica

2.94

Šumadija Aranđelovac

0.82

Sušica creates 259% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

2.33

creates per match

0.64

1.00

allows per match

3.55

creates per match

Sušica

2.33

Šumadija Aranđelovac

0.64

allows per match

Sušica

1.00

Šumadija Aranđelovac

3.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sušica+0.00on par

Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sušica ↓

Šumadija Aranđelovac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Sušica or draw

92%

Sušica or Šumadija Aranđelovac

87%

Draw or Šumadija Aranđelovac

20%

Winning margin

Sušica wins by 2+

60%

Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Sušica 1+ goals

95%

Sušica 2+ goals

79%

Sušica 3+ goals

55%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals

56%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals

20%

Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sušica (draw refunded)

91%

Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sušica at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac away — creates 0.64, concedes 3.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sušica attack 2.33 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 3.55 → ÷2 → 2.94

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.64 + Sušica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Sušica scores more

80%

level

13%

Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more

8%

Sušica at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Sušica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff