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Sušica vs RSK Rabrovo — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Sušica
Sušica
FT
4 – 2
RSK Rabrovo
RSK Rabrovo
5/25/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 28Stadion FK Sušica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sušica69%
×Draw19%
RSK Rabrovo12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sušica
2.18
RSK Rabrovo
0.77

Sušica creates 183% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Sušica
2.25
RSK Rabrovo
0.78

allows per match

Sušica
0.75
RSK Rabrovo
2.11

finishing

Sušica+0.00on par
RSK Rabrovo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sušica ↓

RSK Rabrovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sušica or draw
88%
Sušica or RSK Rabrovo
81%
Draw or RSK Rabrovo
31%

Winning margin

Sušica wins by 2+
45%
RSK Rabrovo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sušica 1+ goals
89%
Sušica 2+ goals
64%
Sušica 3+ goals
37%
RSK Rabrovo 1+ goals
54%
RSK Rabrovo 2+ goals
18%
RSK Rabrovo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sušica (draw refunded)
85%
RSK Rabrovo (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sušica at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

RSK Rabrovo away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sušica attack 2.25 + RSK Rabrovo defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.18

RSK Rabrovo attack 0.78 + Sušica defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Sušica scores more
69%
level
19%
RSK Rabrovo scores more
12%

Sušica at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Sušica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sušica 4–2 RSK Rabrovo

Sušica beat RSK Rabrovo 4-2 in Srpska Liga - West on May 25, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Sušica in Kragujevac.