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Sušica vs Mihajlovac — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Sušica
Sušica
FT
0 – 0
Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
8/31/2022Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 1Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sušica59%
×Draw24%
Mihajlovac16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sušica
1.66
Mihajlovac
0.74

Sušica creates 124% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 30 away

creates per match

Sušica
1.35
Mihajlovac
0.60

allows per match

Sušica
0.88
Mihajlovac
1.97

finishing

Sušica+0.00on par
Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sušica ↓

Mihajlovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Sušica or draw
84%
Sušica or Mihajlovac
76%
Draw or Mihajlovac
41%

Winning margin

Sušica wins by 2+
33%
Mihajlovac wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sušica 1+ goals
81%
Sušica 2+ goals
49%
Sušica 3+ goals
23%
Mihajlovac 1+ goals
52%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
17%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sušica (draw refunded)
78%
Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sušica at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.88 · 49 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sušica attack 1.35 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.66

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + Sušica defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sušica scores more
59%
level
24%
Mihajlovac scores more
16%

Sušica at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sušica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Sušica 0–0 Mihajlovac

Sušica and Mihajlovac drew 0-0 in Srpska Liga - West on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Kraljevo.