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Surnadal vs Verdal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Surnadal
Surnadal
FT
5 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
Verdal
Verdal
8/3/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 15Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal56%
×Draw18%
Verdal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surnadal
2.70
Verdal
1.80

Surnadal creates 50% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Surnadal
2.31
Verdal
1.15

allows per match

Surnadal
2.46
Verdal
3.08

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par
Verdal+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Verdal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw
75%
Surnadal or Verdal
82%
Draw or Verdal
44%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+
37%
Verdal wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals
93%
Surnadal 2+ goals
75%
Surnadal 3+ goals
50%
Verdal 1+ goals
83%
Verdal 2+ goals
54%
Verdal 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)
69%
Verdal (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Verdal away — creates 1.15, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.31 + Verdal defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.70

Verdal attack 1.15 + Surnadal defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Surnadal scores more
56%
level
18%
Verdal scores more
25%

Surnadal at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Surnadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surnadal vs Verdal

Surnadal beat Verdal 5-4 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Syltøran stadion in Surnadal.