Surnadal 2–1 Stabæk II: Result & Stats

Surnadal

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Stabæk II

4/28/2024

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 4Alti Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal39%

×Draw20%

Stabæk II41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurnadalExpected goals in this matchStabæk II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

2.31

Surnadal

2.26

Stabæk II

2.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

2.31

creates per match

2.16

2.46

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Surnadal

2.31

Stabæk II

2.16

allows per match

Surnadal

2.46

Stabæk II

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par

Stabæk II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes81
No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Stabæk II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw

59%

Surnadal or Stabæk II

80%

Draw or Stabæk II

61%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+

22%

Stabæk II wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals

89%

Surnadal 2+ goals

66%

Surnadal 3+ goals

39%

Stabæk II 1+ goals

90%

Stabæk II 2+ goals

67%

Stabæk II 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)

49%

Stabæk II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Stabæk II away — creates 2.16, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.31 + Stabæk II defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.26

Stabæk II attack 2.16 + Surnadal defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Surnadal scores more

39%

level

20%

Stabæk II scores more

41%

Stabæk II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff