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Surnadal vs Rana — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Surnadal
Surnadal
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Rana
Rana
9/1/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 19Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal30%
×Draw19%
Rana51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surnadal
1.93
Rana
2.54

Rana creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Surnadal
2.31
Rana
2.62

allows per match

Surnadal
2.46
Rana
1.54

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par
Rana+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Rana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw
49%
Surnadal or Rana
81%
Draw or Rana
70%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+
15%
Rana wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals
85%
Surnadal 2+ goals
57%
Surnadal 3+ goals
30%
Rana 1+ goals
92%
Rana 2+ goals
72%
Rana 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)
37%
Rana (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Rana away — creates 2.62, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.31 + Rana defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.93

Rana attack 2.62 + Surnadal defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Surnadal scores more
30%
level
19%
Rana scores more
51%

Rana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Surnadal 0 – 2 Rana

Rana beat Surnadal 2-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Syltøran stadion in Surnadal.