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Surnadal vs Molde II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Surnadal
Surnadal
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Molde II
Molde II
6/7/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 9Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal38%
×Draw19%
Molde II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surnadal
2.37
Molde II
2.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Surnadal
2.00
Molde II
1.98

allows per match

Surnadal
3.00
Molde II
2.74

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par
Molde II+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Molde II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw
58%
Surnadal or Molde II
81%
Draw or Molde II
62%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+
22%
Molde II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals
91%
Surnadal 2+ goals
68%
Surnadal 3+ goals
42%
Molde II 1+ goals
92%
Molde II 2+ goals
71%
Molde II 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)
48%
Molde II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Molde II away — creates 1.98, concedes 2.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.00 + Molde II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.37

Molde II attack 1.98 + Surnadal defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Surnadal scores more
38%
level
19%
Molde II scores more
42%

Molde II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molde II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Surnadal 1–4 Molde II

Molde II beat Surnadal 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Syltøran stadion in Surnadal.