Surnadal 3–4 Lillestrøm II: Result & Stats

Surnadal

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Lillestrøm II

9/15/2024

3. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 21Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal46%

×Draw19%

Lillestrøm II35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurnadalExpected goals in this matchLillestrøm II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.73

2.38

Surnadal

2.73

Lillestrøm II

2.38

Surnadal creates 15% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.31

creates per match

2.31

2.46

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Surnadal

2.31

Lillestrøm II

2.31

allows per match

Surnadal

2.46

Lillestrøm II

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par

Lillestrøm II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes85
No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Lillestrøm II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–14%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–35%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw

65%

Surnadal or Lillestrøm II

81%

Draw or Lillestrøm II

54%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+

29%

Lillestrøm II wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals

93%

Surnadal 2+ goals

75%

Surnadal 3+ goals

50%

Lillestrøm II 1+ goals

91%

Lillestrøm II 2+ goals

68%

Lillestrøm II 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)

57%

Lillestrøm II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

81%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.31, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

Lillestrøm II away — creates 2.31, concedes 3.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.31 + Lillestrøm II defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.73

Lillestrøm II attack 2.31 + Surnadal defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Surnadal scores more

46%

level

19%

Lillestrøm II scores more

35%

Surnadal at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Surnadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff