Surnadal 2–3 Kristiansund II: Result & Stats

Surnadal

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Kristiansund II

S. H. Kvande 71'

S. Smevoll 14'

S. Fjellvikas 52'

H. Opsahl 19'

E. Nyland 17'

10/11/2025

3. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 24Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal44%

×Draw20%

Kristiansund II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurnadalExpected goals in this matchKristiansund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

2.00

Surnadal

2.23

Kristiansund II

2.00

Surnadal creates 12% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

3.00

allows per match

2.46

creates per match

Surnadal

2.00

Kristiansund II

1.00

allows per match

Surnadal

3.00

Kristiansund II

2.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par

Kristiansund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Kristiansund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw

64%

Surnadal or Kristiansund II

80%

Draw or Kristiansund II

56%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+

25%

Kristiansund II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals

89%

Surnadal 2+ goals

65%

Surnadal 3+ goals

38%

Kristiansund II 1+ goals

86%

Kristiansund II 2+ goals

59%

Kristiansund II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)

55%

Kristiansund II (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Kristiansund II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.00 + Kristiansund II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

Kristiansund II attack 1.00 + Surnadal defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Surnadal scores more

44%

level

20%

Kristiansund II scores more

36%

Surnadal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Surnadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

17'

19'

52'

71'

90'

S. Smevoll

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff