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Surnadal vs Aalesund II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Surnadal
Surnadal
FT
5 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
P. Melkild 49'
T. Baeverfjord 45'
K. E. Andersen 36'
S. Smevoll 32', 29'
6/23/20253. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Group 2 - 11Syltøran stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Surnadal36%
×Draw20%
Aalesund II44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surnadal
1.98
Aalesund II
2.19

Aalesund II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 33 away

creates per match

Surnadal
2.00
Aalesund II
1.39

allows per match

Surnadal
3.00
Aalesund II
1.97

finishing

Surnadal+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surnadal ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Surnadal or draw
56%
Surnadal or Aalesund II
80%
Draw or Aalesund II
64%

Winning margin

Surnadal wins by 2+
19%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Surnadal 1+ goals
86%
Surnadal 2+ goals
59%
Surnadal 3+ goals
31%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
89%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
64%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Surnadal (draw refunded)
45%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surnadal at home — creates 2.00, concedes 3.00 · 13 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surnadal attack 2.00 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.98

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Surnadal defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Surnadal scores more
36%
level
20%
Aalesund II scores more
44%

Aalesund II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
S. Smevoll
32'
S. Smevoll
36'
K. E. Andersen
45'
T. Baeverfjord
49'
P. Melkild

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surnadal vs Aalesund II

Surnadal beat Aalesund II 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on June 23, 2025.

Goals: S. Smevoll (29', 32'), K. E. Andersen (36'), T. Baeverfjord (45'), P. Melkild (49').

The match was played at Syltøran stadion in Surnadal.