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Surkhon vs Qizilqum — Super League 2026

Surkhon
Surkhon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qizilqum
Qizilqum
8/3/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 16Stadion Surkhon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Surkhon44%
×Draw29%
Qizilqum27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surkhon
1.27
Qizilqum
0.92

Surkhon creates 38% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 100 away

creates per match

Surkhon
0.99
Qizilqum
0.73

allows per match

Surkhon
1.11
Qizilqum
1.55

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par
Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Qizilqum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw
73%
Surkhon or Qizilqum
71%
Draw or Qizilqum
56%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+
20%
Qizilqum wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals
72%
Surkhon 2+ goals
36%
Surkhon 3+ goals
14%
Qizilqum 1+ goals
60%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
23%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)
62%
Qizilqum (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.11 · 99 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.55 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 0.99 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Qizilqum attack 0.73 + Surkhon defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Surkhon scores more
44%
level
29%
Qizilqum scores more
27%

Surkhon at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Surkhon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Surkhon 0–0 Qizilqum

Surkhon and Qizilqum drew 0-0 in Super League on August 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Surkhon in Termez.