Surkhon 0–0 Qizilqum: Result & Stats | Super League

Surkhon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Qizilqum

9/17/2020

Super League · Round 15Stadion Surkhon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Surkhon45%

×Draw29%

Qizilqum26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SurkhonExpected goals in this matchQizilqum

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.90

Surkhon

1.27

Qizilqum

0.90

Surkhon creates 41% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 97 away

0.99

creates per match

0.71

1.09

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Surkhon

0.99

Qizilqum

0.71

allows per match

Surkhon

1.09

Qizilqum

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par

Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

Qizilqum →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw

74%

Surkhon or Qizilqum

71%

Draw or Qizilqum

55%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+

20%

Qizilqum wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals

72%

Surkhon 2+ goals

36%

Surkhon 3+ goals

14%

Qizilqum 1+ goals

59%

Qizilqum 2+ goals

23%

Qizilqum 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)

63%

Qizilqum (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.09 · 98 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 0.99 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Qizilqum attack 0.71 + Surkhon defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Surkhon scores more

45%

level

29%

Qizilqum scores more

26%

Surkhon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Surkhon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

O. Tolmasovi

45+3'

K. Nurmetov← I. Gbadamosi

67'

K. Nurmetov

78'

80'

81'

M. Nomozov← A. Hojiakbarov

82'

S. Juraev

82'

83'

N. Norov← S. Karimov

85'

V. Shodiev← K. Nurmetov

88'

S. Abdullajonov← O. Kilichev

90'

V. Kosmynin

90+2'

A. Gafurov

90+2'

M. Abdurahmonov← N. Khasanov

Surkhon

Qizilqum

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Abdukhujayev

81'▲M. Nomozov←▼A. Hojiakbarov

83'▲N. Norov←▼S. Karimov

90+2'▲M. Abdurahmonov←▼N. Khasanov

Surkhon substitutes

NomozovNorovAbdurahmonovTuraevYoldoshevChoriyevBerdimurodovAhmedovAshurov

Manager: Y. Lukin

45+3'▲K. Nurmetov←▼I. Gbadamosi

85'▲V. Shodiev←▼K. Nurmetov

88'▲S. Abdullajonov←▼O. Kilichev

Qizilqum substitutes

NurmetovShodievAbdullajonovMakosinKambarovAbdualimovQosimovUbaydullaevQodirov