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Surkhon vs FK Crvena Zvezda — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Surkhon
Surkhon
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
J. Abdusalomov 42'
S. Stojkovic 60'
A. Katai 55', 43'
1/12/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Surkhon26%
×Draw22%
FK Crvena Zvezda52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Surkhon
1.39
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.02

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 45% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

creates per match

Surkhon
1.50
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.55

allows per match

Surkhon
2.50
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.27

finishing

Surkhon+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 66Under: 3466%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Surkhon ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Surkhon or draw
48%
Surkhon or FK Crvena Zvezda
78%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
74%

Winning margin

Surkhon wins by 2+
11%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Surkhon 1+ goals
75%
Surkhon 2+ goals
40%
Surkhon 3+ goals
16%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
87%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
60%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Surkhon (draw refunded)
34%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Surkhon at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Surkhon attack 1.50 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.39

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 1.55 + Surkhon defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Surkhon scores more
26%
level
22%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
52%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
J. Abdusalomov
43'
A. Katai
55'
A. Katai
60'
S. Stojkovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Surkhon vs FK Crvena Zvezda

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Surkhon 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 12, 2025.

Goals: J. Abdusalomov (42'), A. Katai (43', 55'), S. Stojkovic (60').